With the Labour leadership contest in full swing, it appears to be a battle among Labour moderates who don’t see Corbyn as capable of winning a general election, against the die-hard socialists who believe they’ve found a real gem in Jeremy. The reality is, either way, Labour are doomed for 2020.
Let’s assess the situation if Jeremy Corbyn manages to get a second mandate from Labour members, the more likely of the two scenarios.
Should Corbyn win again, there will be a clear mandate for him to lead the party and he will push on with his socialist agenda. With Labour already struggling in the polls, a whole ten percentage points behind the Tories, they’d surely only drift further.
Not only is history not on Corbyn’s side, his opponent, Theresa May, has moved the Conservative Party back into centre ground whilst also promising to deliver Brexit. She has managed the steep political task of appealing to all sides of the electorate.
With Corbyn remaining in charge, Labour will only continue to dwindle in the polls, and anything more than 170 seats after 2020 would be a major accomplishment. The Conservatives would then be comfortable to continue in government, perhaps even until 2030.
There are even signs that some Labour MPs may be willing to make a formal split similar to that of the 1980’s. Any split in the left vote would hand the Tories an even larger majority.
Jeremy Corbyn may claim he’ll get a huge mandate from Labour members, but wait until after the General Election, then he’ll see what a real mandate looks like. The incomprehensible delusion of the hard left will drive Labour towards oblivion. The mind truly boggles that Corbynites really believe electoral victory is within grasp with such poor polling and tactics.
The more moderate Labour members are largely backing Owen Smith, but, in reality, nobody is excited about him either.
The only reason moderates are backing him is because anything is better than Jeremy. Smith is Labour’s last desperate clutch to the electorate.
However, upon inspection of his policy ideas and voting record, it’s revealed he is not exactly the centrist candidate the moderates are clamouring for.
Owen Smith is in favour of a spending spree in opposition to austerity, and crucially, he is in favour of ignoring the result of the European Referendum. It is deplorable that any educated politician of a major political party, especially one which was born supposedly out of the desire to connect ordinary people to politics, could ignore the biggest exercise in British democracy.
It is understandable why some Labour members are opting for Smith. Clearly they feel he offers something just short of Corbyn’s inevitable failure. Either way, Labour must face the consequences of their choice.
Labour are essentially staring down the barrel of a gun. If they choose Corbyn, they look set for electoral annihilation as most of the moderate voters will choose May’s new-look Tories or perhaps even the Liberal Democrats.
If Labour choose Smith, they face the prospect of still going into an election with an uninspiring candidate, one which will lose working-class Eurosceptic voters in northern constituencies.
The situation the Labour Party finds itself in is the result of failing to offer a viable alternative government, something they haven’t managed since 2005. Moreover, Labour are paying the penalty for the poor decisions of the Blair and Brown years.
Mass immigration brought by Blair finally caught up with them, as did widespread criticism about UK actions in the Middle East. The final nail in the coffin was the complete mismanagement of the UK economy which led to painful cuts being needed.
The voters don’t trust Labour, they don’t trust Owen Smith, and they don’t trust Jeremy Corbyn.
The only advice I can give to any Labour voter is, buckle in, or join your local Conservative branch, we’re always happy to have you.
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